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Winner's Curse

Definition
AI-generated

Winner's curse is the systematic over- or underestimation of genetic effect sizes for variants selected because they exceed a significance threshold, because conditioning on crossing that threshold truncates the sampling distribution of the estimate.

Topics
Epidemiology
Related
Effect Size Genome-Wide Association Study (GWAS) Polygenic Risk Score (PRS)

Why it matters in GWAS

Lead SNP effects used for PRS, follow-up power calculations, or Mendelian randomization can be biased unless selected hits are adjusted or externally replicated.

Example usage

"The methods section includes Winner's Curse to support interpretation of the primary findings."

Effect Size Genome-Wide Association Study (GWAS) Polygenic Risk Score (PRS) Bias Statistical Power
Related-term network

Click any node to open that term page.

Node order. The current term is first. Next come every page linked from Related terms, in the same top-to-bottom order as that list. Then new terms appear in two-hop layers: for each of those direct neighbors (in that same order), their related terms are appended if not already listed. A third pass does the same for two-hop nodes. The walk stops when a fixed maximum number of nodes is reached.

References

  • Zhong H, Prentice RL. (2008). Bias-reduced estimators for odds ratios in genome-wide association studies. Biostatistics.
  • GWASTutorial: Winner's curse.
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