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Calibration

Definition
AI-generated

Calibration describes how well predicted risk or probability matches observed outcome frequencies in the target population—often assessed with calibration plots, the Hosmer–Lemeshow test, calibration slope and intercept, or Brier-related decomposition.

Topics
Epidemiology
Related
Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) Classification Accuracy Decision Curve Analysis

Why it matters in GWAS

Polygenic and clinical risk models must be calibrated for absolute risk counseling, screening thresholds, and decision curve interpretation; miscalibration can differ by ancestry, age, or ascertainment, so external cohorts should be checked even when AUC is stable.

Example usage

"The PRS had acceptable discrimination but poor calibration in South Asians until recalibration with platt scaling on the local validation set."

Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) Classification Accuracy Decision Curve Analysis Polygenic Risk Score (PRS) Precision Recall
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References

  • Steyerberg EW, et al. (2010). Assessing the performance of prediction models: a framework for traditional and novel measures. Epidemiology.
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